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The Stock Room |
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(Continued from previous page ) looking at the beaten down homebuilders as a possible new purchase. The Amazing one thinks that HOV is a good buy at $24.50. Can’t say that I disagree. Holly crap! Twice in this century we agree! “This could be heaven or this could be hell.” _______________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 08/17/2006 @8:30 am EST: FYI saved by a dovish PPI & CPI. They sent the shorts looking for cover. Excuse the pun. I really want to say it’s all BS, but I’ve been told that I’m being a little too negative. Fine! 230 points in the DOW since Monday: YIPPEEEEEEE! Happy now? We broke through major resistance on the S&P at 1290 to close at 1295. Does it matter – No. The rally was wide spread across all sectors. Does that matter – No. Earnings were good this past quarter. Does that matter – No. So what does matter, the FED? Big shit! So they raise or not, not going to mean shit in the long run. All that really matters is how the shorts react to it. Right now they’re running scared and are feeding on each other. Don’t worry, they’ll regroup and stick it to all of us. I still predict a downturn to 10,300 and if being realistic is negative, well then that’s just the way I see it. Use this upswing to get out and take profit. At least put in some conservative Stop Limit Sell orders to protect your ass. Good luck! ____________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 08/10/2006 @5:00 pm EST: I mentioned to the Amazing one that I have had a lot of web-site hits since I gave out my Cendant spreadsheet. I told him that I was getting a real following and was the next “Warren Buffet”. He IM’d me back that it was more like a “breakfast buffet”. Good one! ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s email to Cendant 08/10/2006 @8:30 am EST: Dear CD,
The entire situation made by your rather horrible spin-off decision is now out of control, but more importantly - out of your control. You should have never done it and I should have sold out long ago.
But in any event - YOU CANNOT CONTROL THE MARKET - by using a REVERSE SPLIT! They don't work. All you are doing is giving shorts more wiggle room. The stock price will just settle back to where it was before the split. THAT'S WHERE THE MARKET WANTS IT, so don't further compound past mistakes by taking away stock from investors. All that will happen is 2 weeks after the reverse - the stock price will be just where it was before AND I'll own a 10th of the shares.
STOP THE STUPIDITY NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Unhappy investor, ………….... ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 08/08/2006 @6:00 pm EST: For better or for worse, today I started to fulfill my destiny. I sold all my PFE & WRES. Not at the high of the day, but at least above where they closed. I sold ½ of my MOT before the Fed announcement at the high, hoping for a larger bounce after. As usual, it went in the other direction, so I’m still stuck in that one. The rest of my crap is not at a sell position yet. Now what? Don’t get me wrong; I do think that what the Fed does is important. However, in the bigger scheme of things, I do think that what the Hedge Funds (a.k.a. shorts) do is even more important. I still think that the shorties have not had enough of their way, and the market is going to succumb to their will. This is especially true with the August doldrums on hand. But since I can’t stay still, I do like AA here. I like it even better at $28.00. I have also put PAY back onto my short list. I actually would have bought it today, but I didn’t like the $.90 pop it had. I’ll wait for $23, or $22.50 would be even better. Side Bar: I heard on CNBC someone mention that they had spoken to a Cendant executive and asked why the stock was down so much since the spin-off. They had no answer! Well, until someone takes Henry Silverman out into the parking lot and puts him (and us) out of his misery; well the 3 stocks – CD, H, & WYN are going nowhere but down. It is curious though, that at this $12.69 level, we are now at the price that Cramer said “private equity” would come in for a leveraged buyout. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 08/06/2006@10:00 am EST: Another one of those weeks. One second everything is great and the next - the end of the world is approaching. Just look at Friday’s volatility. We started off in 7th heaven over a lower then expected jobs report. People think that if the Fed stops everything will be great, even if that means more people are out of work. Then the reality of it set in and the shorts took over. At one point we were up nearly 100 points, but by 2 pm we were back in the toilet at –25. Up – down, good – bad, wax on – wax off! All of this is made worse by large scale dumping of the ETF’s. Talk about the tail wagging the dog syndrome. So what now? I see no return to the high end of the trading range at 11,700. As I said before I think we’re still stuck in the 10,900 to 11,300. I do see a major correction coming. Probably back to 10,350 or so. When? Not sure, but I still think I should be selling out ASAP. Maybe Monday I will start to listen to myself. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 08/02/2006@05:00 pm EST: OK – NOW I’M PISSED! Pissed at this market! Pissed at the weather! But most importantly, pissed at myself! I have now had several chances to sell 5 stocks at a small but OK profit, after sitting with them for months in the toilet. A few of these – WRES especially – I’ve been given at least 4 chances in the past week to get out. BUT HAVE I? Of course NOT! Oink…oink…oink. Over and over again! I had a plan! Damn it – stick to it! Oh, and please don’t get me started on Cendant! Or should I say Cendant times 3 POS’s. ___________________________________________________________________ The Prof’s take for 07/27/2006@06:00 pm EST: On Tues., as I was singing, "over the river and through the woods", and thinking of my big boy showerhead, I noticed BCON shooting up. I quickly sold my SIRI at a 4K loss, and bought in. I could have sold within an hour, and made $500. But no, I'm too much of an oinker for that; I waited and today I'm just breaking even. My lesson: this market ain't going nowhere fast. There's no lubrication to stick around. My mantra is: in & out! ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 07/27/2006@05:00 pm EST: More and more this market is reminding me of my sex life. The market gets way too excited easily – blows its’ wad early – then has no follow through. This is the 3rd day in a row that futures were up on somewhat suspect news – the averages pop – and then around 1 PM it sells off with little to no gain. I said we would be in a trading range, and that’s exactly where we are. It’s just right now I have no idea when the upper range will be reached in the short term. I keep saying to myself to sell anything I have when I get even. Well, I’ve had that chance now several times on WRES in the past 3 days, but “No Deal”. Oink…oink! “Do as I say and not as I do!” The Fed will raise again, count on it. This market still has a very bearish tone, and I see no real upside. Right now, I am personally back to even for 2006 – hey that’s pretty good in this shit-ass market. Why I’m not just selling out is beyond me. Side Bar: SGMG sucking wind real good! Thxs Van K. NOT! ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 06/27/2006@09:00 am EST: OK, we’re back to my “No Brainer” prediction on 4/14/06 of 11,000, after hitting the 10,700 level I predicted on 5/24/06. The Taro Cards are now saying a dull market fluctuating between 10,900 and 11,300 for the rest of the summer. We’ll see. Some may want to position themselves into tech and oil during a pullback, hoping for the Thanksgiving rally that “normally” happens. Remember, the September/October sell-off period proceeds any winter rally. Looks like Van K’s SGMG is about to take off on a sale contract to disabled old people—talk about a captive audience! ___________________________________________________________________ MM’s response for 06/09/2006@07:00 am EST: Every time you get actively involved with trading the market tanks--so ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 06/08/2006@08:00 am EST: You would have thought that by killing that asshole, al-Zarqawi, the markets and Futures would be soaring. Well, you would be wrong! Japan really tanked last night, European Markets look lousy, and the S&P Futures are still 7+ points below Fair Value. Looks like a very ugly open. All I can say is, “I give up!” Sound familiar? The shorts are well into control. Unless you do play the short side of the market and have plenty of cash, then all you can do is sit around and wait. Maybe, just maybe, we’ll get that “blow off” we’ve all been waiting on. A 250 point drop in the Dow on heavy volume with a late day reversal into positive territory, would be the best of all worlds. Too much to hope for? Probably! See you on the other side. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 06/04/2006@05:00 pm EST: Some week. Everyone was running scared over the Fed Minutes from Tuesday, but there was nothing there that really wasn’t expected. A real non-event. It appears that Bernanke is stuck in a real hard place. If he pauses, then Wall St. will see him as bring weak on inflation (even though there really isn’t any – no pricing power); but if he raises, he runs the risk of over-shooting and turning this “Goldilocks” economy into a real bow-wow. As is, the jobs report from Friday showed a very small increase of only around 75,000, so things are cooling much faster then expected. Housing is starting to suck, though you would never know it from the condo prices in NYC. So what does this mean for us? Got to tell you that annuities are looking better and better. A guarantee of 5%+ just isn’t looking so bad right about now. ENT & EEQ are still paying great dividends and are priced very reasonable, especially ENT. I still see a major downturn in this market with a 12% correction to 10,500. Some are even saying less, but we know they are just shorts trying to scare the crap out of us. Yeah right! My plan is still to get even, or +5% (I was up 8.5% for the year, but May sure took care of that.) by the 15th, and then go away for the summer! Hope it works out. In the meantime, AA did seem to get away with murder by having the union members pay for health care, so you may want to take a look at around $30.50. Wish I had sold my SIRI at $4.55 last week, but I was being too piggy. It had a nice run back from the $3.50 level, so what the hell was I thinking. Same thing goes for CPST, but I still love that puppy way too much. Never fall in love with your stocks! MOT, INTC, MSFT, & AMTD – all big caps – are just turning out to be all big craps, so don’t think that they are such a bargain at these levels. Maybe they are, but they still suck wind. Keep an eye on GSS and BGO. I’m sure Iran will pull a fast one and these gold stocks will go thru the roof again. Oh, and don’t get sucked into KRY - it’s just a Cramer hype. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 05/25/2006@08:00 pm EST: Now that was so much better, wasn’t it! We got off to a strong start even off of weak Futures, and it just built momentum all day long. I would love for Wall St. to go on Holiday Weekend vacation very early tomorrow; and we get a very modest and tranquil up tick. Let us all pray that there is great weather in the New York area. We want those overpaid traders to have a great weekend in the Hampton’s, so they can come back Tuesday with a BUY mentality. Send out partial kudos to the “Prof” for taking a quick profit on her CPST, getting out at the high on Wednesday. Partial, because she bought it back today. Too early! We need some contracts very soon or it’s back to under $3.00. Am I jealous or what! SIRI had a great pop and I hope it holds, so I can get in a stop limit on Tuesday at where I bought it - $4.52. Did you see SGMG – nice up movement, too. They put out their report: 0 products, 0 revenue, 0 earnings. I guess some figured it can only get better from here. I understand that the “Amazing” one is going to climb a volcano in Guatemala, so I am losing my sage for a week. Some sage, his last quote was, “I’ve given up. I don’t even watch anymore!” Have a great trip and don’t get avian flu down there. Well, that’s it until after the Memorial Weekend. Have fun and relax. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 05/24/2006@08:20 pm EST: Oh well, I told you so. I hope you didn’t get as screwed as much as I did. 10 days and almost my entire 2006 profit in the toilet. It was just such a horrible sell-off in almost every area that I was just not prepared for it. Sucks! Oil – commodities – brokerage – tech – nothing was really spared. I think the selling is now over. Yeah sure – heard that before. Today they tried to drive it down midday, but they couldn’t. We got close to that 11,000 I warned about and then bounced right off. Looks good for the short term. Now if they just keep the bird flu crappola to a minimum, we might just make it. I have a feeling we’re back to the upper range of the latest trading range – around 11,450 – and then, well it’s going to be a real pullback to 10,700 starting around 6/15. God I hope I’m out before, and this time I mean it! Hey check out FOXH. After hitting the depths of hell – we’re on our way back up. Took an upgrade, but what the hell. Had a chance on PAY and LMS, but I have no available cash left. I don’t believe in selling 1 looser to buy a probable other one, anyway. CPST finally got the NYC MEA approval. Maybe a return to $4.50 in a few weeks. AMTD still sucking wind.
I’m keeping the faith! Have no other choice. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 05/15/2006@08:20 am EST: What the frig happened? Everything was looking so great! Well that’s exactly the problem. I said we should start taking profits and go cash, but did I listen? NOT! Well, the smart boys did and on Thursday they started to take those profits and run for the hills. At the same time, the shorts smelled blood and we were all caught in a “reverse squeeze”. Selling brought on more selling, which just fed on the shorts greed and brought on more shorting. No real reason for any of this except for the old and venerable excuse: “Fear & Greed”. Friday was just more of the same. In the meantime, I got slaughtered. Nothing was exempt from the carnage. Life sucks and then you die. But what now? This could keep going for a full 10% correction back to 10,500. God I hope not at this time. My big caps couldn’t handle it. As is MOT broke downside support at $21.65. The rest of my crap didn’t fair much better. At least I wasn’t in EXPE – 25% haircut. For Monday what would be great is that we open with more selling with a further washout, AND then a mid to late day reversal, ending positive or even close to positive. That would be a very bullish sign. However, if we get an up morning, well I fear that will just be a “dead-cat bounce” and we’ll get more frenzied selling in the afternoon. Above all, the specifications of the following logarithm must be met:
When the angle of the dangle, Is in proportion to the heat of the meat; The mass of the ass is constant.
HELPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP! I’ve tanked and can’t get up! ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 05/10/2006@08:20 am EST: Well it’s Fed day. 5% is a given, but what then? Most are hoping for a “pause”, or at least language that will indicate that. I think the Fed is going to pull a fast one and give in to reality – “No Pause, Inflation on the rise!” Unfortunately this will tank the market. Either way they go, you and I have no control. OK, we could be in cash, but what happens if they do say pause – we’re screwed. I sold my AA and GM last week – STUPID I GUESS! Could have sworn they would keep going down, which they did after my sale. Oh well. As a wise man keeps telling me, “Don’t look back and move on.” Just can’t though. Right now I’m fully invested. Not happy about that. I bought FOXH back after the earnings at $25.90. I’ll hold for a while. I also put some into SGMG – have to take the needle out of arm for that one. I have way too much crappy big cap tech still. Never again. See you on the other side. Good luck today. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 04/21/2006@08:00 am EST: That’s it! I started selling things today, or at least started trying. After that enormous GM run up I sold. I know I said I was in till $24, but there is only 1 thing that Cramer and I agree on: “Hogs get slaughtered!” I did not like the sell off today in the commodity stocks, oil, and metals. All of this in tandem with “the stock that cannot be mentioned” going up 40 points in after-hours. Tomorrow I will continue the selling, or least put in some conservative “stop limit” orders. Earnings have been good, but not good enough to sustain this run up. OK, foreign markets are strong and our economy seems to be firing on all cylinders. It’s just that there is way too much euphoria and complacency. Something has got to give and I really rather lock in some profits and wait. I am holding my ENT and EEQ, and will happily wait around while I collect dividends of 14% and 8.5% respectively. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 04/20/2006@08:00 am EST: I see that FOXH had a really nice pop to $31.38. Oh well, but Mr. Ballantine has set the price @ $28.50. Got a bad feeling about this one—next stop $36. Well, after a brief sell off in the AM, both major indices clawed their way back into positive territory. The Nas even more so. After the bell AAPL had some good earnings, but EBAY missed. INTC was not as bad as expected. Not much consolation to all of us that are holding this pos. At least I’m only in at $21.25. Bad enough! Anyway, the market action today was a very bullish sign. Not sure we’re breaking out to new highs, but the retracement I am still expecting has been put off for a while longer. Now watch—the market will tank just to prove me wrong. ___________________________________________________________________ Andy P’s take for 04/19/2006@08:00 am EST: WOW! 200 points! Back to the upper end of the trading range in 1 day! Caught me off guard, but since I’m almost fully invested all I can say is: YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH BABY! Let’s give out some kudos to the “amazing” one who told me to buy YHOO last week. Nice earnings! Too bad I didn’t listen. Oh well. He also told me he bought TYC yesterday and I laughed my ass off. Who’s laughing now? But if I were him I’d run for the hills with the profit. What about Wednesday? Got to be a pullback, but then again maybe not. This market has me totally baffled, but since my stock picks keep going in the right direction, who cares. (Continued on next page) |
