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The Stock Room page 7 |
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_______________________________________ apppro’s take for 09/09/2013 09:00 am EST On the anniversary of Lehman’s On this anniversary’ lets reread something I wrote ON the original insanity. Truth then—MORE truth now! apppro’s take for 09/16/2009 @9:00 am EST: Cause vs. Create! Let’s take a brief look back at New Orleans & the Katrina hurricane disaster. What ‘CAUSED’ the disaster? Katrina came on shore as a Category 5 storm, but the initial storm surge did not cause the levies to break or to flood the city. I’m sure it didn’t help the situation, but it wasn’t that. As Katrina moved on shore and over the city, nearby Lake Poncetrain was pummeled by 125+ mph winds & they say over 10 inches of rain per hour. Eventually that did it and the levies couldn’t hold back he waters any more. Bye.. bye New Orleans. So, if you had said the winds and rains of Katrina ‘CAUSED’ the disaster, you would have been right. If Katrina had been slightly weaker, or had hit 50 miles east or west, we may have not had the disaster. Besides from the obvious fact that New Orleans should never have been built there in the 1st place; it was years of poor Federal management and bad levy maintenance that actually ‘CREATED’ the underpinnings for the disaster. HOWEVER, it was the short term rains and winds that ‘CAUSED’ it. If the winds/rains had been less, the levies wouldn't have failed and we wouldn't have had the disaster. The levies had never been maintained or even built for a storm like Katrina. People may have been living under an umbrella of false confidence that all would be maintained, and that confidence was easily destroyed by a storm no one wanted to believe would ever come. Those were the beliefs, assumptions, etc. we had all come to accept and live by. However, the ‘powers to be’ had already decided that Armageddon was required IMMEDIATELY, and all the future plans to fix the levies was just a waste of time. The same goes for our entire financial system & economy as a whole. Years of ill conceived Federal deregulation, increased leverage by banks, decreased savings by everyone, and a greedy consumer who wanted it all and wanted it now… those things actually ‘CREATED’ the underpinnings for the disaster. Those were the beliefs, assumptions, etc. we had all come to accept and live by. BUT, it was the intense abuse of ‘mark to market’ (M2M) by short funds, extensive and uncontrolled rumormongering, no uptick rule, & relentless naked short selling that actually ‘CAUSED’ the disaster. If the short funds hadn't been allowed and promoted by the media to bring everything down so quickly and violently by destroying our confidence, we could have worked things out in a timely manner and prevented all this pain. However, the shorties had already decided that Armageddon was required IMMEDIATELY, and all the future plans to fix the financial system was just a waste of time. While some still are trying to fix a few of the inadequacies of our investing market system, the above has been lost in our desire to place blame on the CEO’s of the nation and to hail the doomsayers and destroyers as heroes. _______________________________________ apppro’s take for 09/03/2013 09:00 am EST
“The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming!” Syria Peace Plan Would it be so horrible if we worked WITH Russia and others? 1. Form a 50/50 alliance with Russia (depending on who else joins) to form a Peace Keeping Task Force. Forces would be used to END the fighting ONLY. 2. Current Assad government remains BUT RUSSIA makes them understand there will be NO more fighting or reprisals. 3. Forces remain for 10 years to make sure ALL fighting stops on ALL sides. 4. ALL chemical weapons are exposed and destroyed. 5. ALL rebels are dis-armed with guarantees of NO reprisals. 6. ALL refugees are allowed to return with NO reprisals. 7. ALL TIES BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAN ARE TERMINATED. 8. ALL TIES BETWEEN SYRIA AND HEZBOLLAH ARE TERMINATED. 9. Arab League brokers FUTURE of Syria with present government and “Free Syrian Army”. NO guarantee of anything except peace.
_______________________________________ apppro’s take for 08/16/2013 11:00 am EST Treasury Interest Rate Basis New plan: To promote stability and certainty and to actually tie rates directly to actual growth here’s my new plan. Base ALL rates on calculated Monthly Moving Averages (MMP) of actual final monthly GDP. Thesis: 30 year Treasury rate would be the LAST 30 year’s average of the confirmed MONTHLY GDP’s. That would mean a 30 year rate would be based on 360 CONFIRMED KNOWN values. 20 year on 240. 10 year on 120… and so on. I’m sure the EXACT figures are available and an exact ratio can then be determined and APPLIED. For example: GDP * LONG-term Monthly ratio of 10 year rate to GDP = 10 year % Rate 2% * 1.25 = 2.5% 10 year. Talk about transparency and consistency! No major fluctuations or major uncertainty. Just a LONG-term valuation based on LONG-term growth (or lack of it). NO SUBJECTIVE HFT ETF INTERPRETATIONS. Only thing that the Fed would adjust as needed is the ‘Daily Rate”, or Rates based UNDER 1 Year. _______________________________________ apppro’s take for 08/03/2013 08:00 am EST Dear Loyal Readers, I’ve received many emails asking why I’ve had no recent rants & ramblings. To all those I must admit I have NO excuse… except for just being lazy. I have been way too involved in TwitLand, and well… 140 characters are just far easier than 2 to 4 hours of writing. Again, I apologize; but if you need some apppro fix you can always check A Twit’s Thread – it says it all in a “Cliff Notes” format! apppro a.k.a. andy _______________________________________ apppro’s take for 06/23/2013 08:00 am EST “I told you so?” After last Wednesday & Thursday, just how RIGHT was I with my Schrödinger's Cat thesis? EXACTLY right! _______________________________________ apppro’s take for 06/03/2013 03:00 pm EST Schrödinger's Cat—Redux As I said on 05/11/2013 01:30 pm EST, it is OUR actions OUTSIDE of the Fed’s box that will kill the economy LONG before we even think about checking inside. The last week of insanity HFT VIX vs. SPY trading is proof. Even today it’s ridiculous:
Enough with this! As I said before “It’s a Benilock’s economy! ENJOY!” _______________________________________ apppro’s take for 06/03/2013 07:30 am EST Our “Benilock’s Economy” Stop fighting it! ENJOY!
Not too hot! Not too cold! But just right for 2% growth and to keep the Fed totally committed.
Side note: Boy do I hate to admit it, but the “Evil One’s” _______________________________________ apppro’s take for 06/01/2013 07:30 am EST Just a Disgrace! Nothing else to say! This chart on what HFT algo’s, weekly options, and a so-called rebalancing (Rebalancing? BS! Gaming by SkyNet of the rebalancing is more like it!) did Friday starting at 2:15 pm says it all. Also, pay close attention at what occurred in last 15 minutes. DISGRACEFUL!
How many people got hurt from this crapolla? How many businesses decided to put on hold more hiring and spending because of this crapolla? What is wrong with all of us? Implement The 6 Golden Rules NOW! IF we allow 20 minutes of machine and trader’s/traitor’s insanity to destroy what economic good has been accomplished over the past 5 years… well, if we allow that than we all should be ashamed. _______________________________________ apppro’s take for 05/25/2013 09:30 am EST The ETFing of our markets & economy! Investopedia: Definition of 'Exchange-Traded Fund - ETF'“A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold.” Wikipedia: Investment uses “ETFs generally provide the easy diversification, low expense ratios, and tax efficiency of index funds, while still maintaining all the features of ordinary stock, such as limit orders, short selling, and options. Because ETFs can be economically acquired, held, and disposed of, some investors invest in ETF shares as a long-term investment for asset allocation purposes, while other investors trade ETF shares frequently to implement market timing investment strategies. (Continued on page 8) |
