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some weird preferences I better say: big fat chunky ass.)
I wish I had listened to myself 2 months ago and bought the homebuilders. Nice 10% recovery since then. Now I just have to sit back and see what happens. Too much of a risk to retest the summer lows on those puppies.
I am looking at some water stocks now. One thing is for sure: people will always want oil, BUT they will always NEED WATER! I put together a list of potential buys, so if anyone has any thoughts please use the blog-back link above. I did put in a bid on CTWS Friday for a small start position, but it didn’t get filled. No rush! Why CTWS, because I’m from the Tri-State Area and they pay a nice 4% dividend. Otherwise, no other reason. “Buy 1st—research later!”
apppro’s take for 09/20/2006 @8:00 am EST:
The Amazing 1 IM’d yesterday screaming for me to buy Yahoo at $25.40. I pooh-poohed him. Then the person whom I will no longer mention, said he bought it at $25.38. YHOO is trading above $26 this AM. We’ll see. (BTW – This is some lightening up we’re doing!)
The shorts still have power. Just look at what they did to SIRI yesterday on bull!%?! rumors. Don’t let that $4.5 billion hedge fund loss let you think they’ve lost their will. As one of those guys on “Fast Money” said last night—if we don’t have an UP day today after the good Oracle earnings, then we’ll really need to worry!
As a side note, 1 of my skater friends emailed me some very interesting comments on Heelys’ skates. I can’t really repeat them, because for some ridiculous reason he doesn’t want to have them posted. “Bitter, bitter, bitter!” (Private joke.)
apppro’s feedback for 09/17/2006 @10:00 am EST:
All right, I was a little hysterical the other day, but the Cramer makes me so coo-coo. Here are a few site links so you can check out the products for yourself. “Buy and then research!” I was wrong about Skechers having the in-shoe wheel 1st. The Skechers’ skate is a full 4 wheeled skate attached to the sneaker bottom, and not the same as the Heelys. I could not find it on their web site, but I do see that Skechers is now knocking off the Crocs’ sandal. Uh oh!
apppro’s take for 09/15/2006 @7:00 pm EST:
Hey Cramer you dingbat – those sneakers with built-in wheels have been around for ages. You said to buy the Heelys IPO (?) – well didn’t Skechers come out with those sneakers over 2 years ago? In any event – how does he have the balls to hype crapolla like that! I wonder how much of the IPO did he get at the Insider Price ? What a croc! And I don’t mean the sandals.
So, did I get the sell off wrong? Yes? No? This constant run up even has me questioning it. I still think that the shorties are going to have their day, again. In reality, so much liquidity is tied up with hedge funds and shorts that the market needs for them to make a profit. It’s only fair you know.
I told you that I have sold quite a bit, but then I went and bought some AA. Not bad, I’m up, but it wasn’t the plan. The Amazing 1 told me that he lightened up more today, and I questioned it. It’s just that I get soooooooo jealous when I see other crap going up and I’m sitting on cash. It actually makes me more crazed then if I own something and it goes down. Sick - you think?
Oh, did I call the bottom for the homebuilders in my 8/30/06 blog, or what!
apppro’s take for 09/12/2006 @8:30 am EST:
I didn’t invent it, but it really sucks that Yahoo Finance announced this morning that they will be starting a “financial/stock blog”! Asswipes!
While I’m venting, let me spend a few moments on Cramer. When PFE was $22, Cramer kept saying that it really sucked; and he bashed it and bashed it. All the while it crept back to $26, Cramer said it was a real POS. Now that it’s back to $27 he loves it. Same with oil. As it went over $70 he was in love, all the while he recommended stocks like CVX and NOV (among many others). Now oil is giving some back and may settle at $60. (Oil stocks are still cheap.) Cramer has joined the penguin parade and NOW says sell everything you have. I sure would like to take a peek at that so-called Charitable Trust to see when he was actually buying PFE and selling his oil.
Well, there goes my plan. Just couldn’t sit back and do nothing, so I bought AA at $27.35 - $1.15 below my target price. Not sure how smart that was, but emotions took over yesterday. (Or should I say stupidity took over!) Have you seen the homebuilders lately? That was a missed opportunity for sure. I think I bought AA because I was pissed about not buying any of the homebuilders.
“You can check-out any time you want, but you can never leave.”
apppro’s take for 09/06/2006 @5:00 pm EST:
Hope you all had a nice Labor Day Holiday. I skated a lot once the NYC weather cleared up from the remnants of Ernesto. I also went to see “Little Miss Sunshine”, but enough with my boring social life.
Does it feel like it’s starting? I’ve been selling, but still have more then I would like. At least after that 5 point move on PAY last week, I’m now up 6% YTD and somewhat happy. Unfortunately I have too many stocks left that are vulnerable and my 6% can turn back to 0% real fast. I really should just take my loses on these and hold onto the 6%, but OINK..OINK!!!!!!
HOV is getting close to the target $, but I’m not buying. (Crap! I just checked after hours!)
The trio of crap – CAR..H..WYN are turning into a true House of Pain. Boy, do I hate that phrase. Sorry!
apppro’s take for 08/30/2006 @6:30 pm EST:
Well I hope you’ve been using this gift to get out of things. The Amazing one and I have both been lightening up. Rarely, if ever do we agree; but this time the stars are in alignment and we’re on the same path to salvation. There is always something else you can buy, or there is always something you can buy back; so don’t blow this opportunity. Just my humble opinion.
Naturally, I have my eyes open and am now looking at the beaten down homebuilders as a possible new purchase. The Amazing one thinks that HOV is a good buy at $24.50. Can’t say that I disagree. Holly crap! Twice in this century we agree!
“This could be heaven or this could be hell.”
apppro’s take for 08/17/2006 @8:30 am EST:
FYI saved by a dovish PPI & CPI. They sent the shorts looking for cover. Excuse the pun. I really want to say it’s all BS, but I’ve been told that I’m being a little too negative. Fine! 230 points in the DOW since Monday: YIPPEEEEEEE! Happy now?
We broke through major resistance on the S&P at 1290 to close at 1295. Does it matter – No. The rally was wide spread across all sectors. Does that matter – No. Earnings were good this past quarter. Does that matter – No. So what does matter, the FED? Big !%?!! So they raise or not, not going to mean !%?! in the long run. All that really matters is how the shorts react to it. Right now they’re running scared and are feeding on each other. Don’t worry, they’ll regroup and stick it to all of us. I still predict a downturn to 10,300 and if being realistic is negative, well then that’s just the way I see it.
Use this upswing to get out and take profit. At least put in some conservative Stop Limit Sell orders to protect your ass. Good luck!
apppro’s take for 08/10/2006 @5:00 pm EST:
I mentioned to the Amazing one that I have had a lot of web-site hits since I gave out my Cendant spreadsheet. I told him that I was getting a real following and was the next “Warren Buffet”. He IM’d me back that it was more like a “breakfast buffet”. Good one!
apppro’s email to Cendant 08/10/2006 @8:30 am EST:
The entire situation made by your rather horrible spin-off decision is now out of control, but more importantly - out of your control. You should have never done it and I should have sold out long ago.
But in any event - YOU CANNOT CONTROL THE MARKET - by using a REVERSE SPLIT! They don't work. All you are doing is giving shorts more wiggle room. The stock price will just settle back to where it was before the split. THAT'S WHERE THE MARKET WANTS IT, so don't further compound past mistakes by taking away stock from investors. All that will happen is 2 weeks after the reverse - the stock price will be just where it was before AND I'll own a 10th of the shares.
STOP THE STUPIDITY NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
apppro’s take for 08/08/2006 @6:00 pm EST:
For better or for worse, today I started to fulfill my destiny. I sold all my PFE & WRES. Not at the high of the day, but at least above where they closed. I sold ½ of my MOT before the Fed announcement at the high, hoping for a larger bounce after. As usual, it went in the other direction, so I’m still stuck in that one. The rest of my crap is not at a sell position yet.
Now what? Don’t get me wrong; I do think that what the Fed does is important. However, in the bigger scheme of things, I do think that what the Hedge Funds (a.k.a. shorts) do is even more important. I still think that the shorties have not had enough of their way, and the market is going to succumb to their will. This is especially true with the August doldrums on hand.
But since I can’t stay still, I do like AA here. I like it even better at $28.00. I have also put PAY back onto my short list. I actually would have bought it today, but I didn’t like the $.90 pop it had. I’ll wait for $23, or $22.50 would be even better.
Side Bar: I heard on CNBC someone mention that they had spoken to a Cendant executive and asked why the stock was down so much since the spin-off. They had no answer! Well, until someone takes Henry Silverman out into the parking lot and puts him (and us) out of his misery; well the 3 stocks – CD, H, & WYN are going nowhere but down. It is curious though, that at this $12.69 level, we are now at the price that Cramer said “private equity” would come in for a leveraged buyout.
apppro’s take for 08/06/2006@10:00 am EST:
Another one of those weeks. One second everything is great and the next - the end of the world is approaching. Just look at Friday’s volatility. We started off in 7th heaven over a lower then expected jobs report. People think that if the Fed stops everything will be great, even if that means more people are out of work. Then the reality of it set in and the shorts took over. At one point we were up nearly 100 points, but by 2 pm we were back in the toilet at –25. Up – down, good – bad, wax on – wax off! All of this is made worse by large scale dumping of the ETF’s. Talk about the tail wagging the dog syndrome.
So what now? I see no return to the high end of the trading range at 11,700. As I said before I think we’re still stuck in the 10,900 to 11,300. I do see a major correction coming. Probably back to 10,350 or so. When? Not sure, but I still think I should be selling out ASAP. Maybe Monday I will start to listen to myself.
apppro’s take for 08/02/2006@05:00 pm EST:
OK – NOW I’M PISSED!
Pissed at this market! Pissed at the weather! But most importantly, pissed at myself! I have now had several chances to sell 5 stocks at a small but OK profit, after sitting with them for months in the toilet. A few of these – WRES especially – I’ve been given at least 4 chances in the past week to get out. BUT HAVE I? Of course NOT! Oink…oink…oink. Over and over again!
I had a plan! Damn it – stick to it!
Oh, and please don’t get me started on Cendant! Or should I say Cendant times 3 POS’s.
The Prof’s take for 07/27/2006@06:00 pm EST:
On Tues., as I was singing, "over the river and through the woods", and thinking of my big boy showerhead, I noticed BCON shooting up. I quickly sold my SIRI at a 4K loss, and bought in. I could have sold within an hour, and made $500. But no, I'm too much of an oinker for that; I waited and today I'm just breaking even. My lesson: this market ain't going nowhere fast. There's no lubrication to stick around. My mantra is: in & out!
apppro’s take for 07/27/2006@05:00 pm EST:
More and more this market is reminding me of my sex life. The market gets way too excited easily – blows its’ wad early – then has no follow through. This is the 3rd day in a row that futures were up on somewhat suspect news – the averages pop – and then around 1 PM it sells off with little to no gain.
I said we would be in a trading range, and that’s exactly where we are. It’s just right now I have no idea when the upper range will be reached in the short term. I keep saying to myself to sell anything I have when I get even. Well, I’ve had that chance now several times on WRES in the past 3 days, but “No Deal”. Oink…oink! “Do as I say and not as I do!”
The Fed will raise again, count on it. This market still has a very bearish tone, and I see no real upside. Right now, I am personally back to even for 2006 – hey that’s pretty good in this !%?!-ass market. Why I’m not just selling out is beyond me.
Side Bar: SGMG sucking wind real good! Thxs Van K. NOT!
apppro’s take for 06/27/2006@09:00 am EST:
OK, we’re back to my “No Brainer” prediction on 4/14/06 of 11,000, after hitting the 10,700 level I predicted on 5/24/06. The Taro Cards are now saying a dull market fluctuating between 10,900 and 11,300 for the rest of the summer. We’ll see. Some may want to position themselves into tech and oil during a pullback, hoping for the Thanksgiving rally that “normally” happens. Remember, the September/October sell-off period proceeds any winter rally.
Looks like Van K’s SGMG is about to take off on a sale contract to disabled old people—talk about a captive audience!
MM’s response for 06/09/2006@07:00 am EST:
Every time you get actively involved with trading the market tanks--so
apppro’s take for 06/08/2006@08:00 am EST:
You would have thought that by killing that asshole, al-Zarqawi, the markets and Futures would be soaring. Well, you would be wrong! Japan really tanked last night, European Markets look lousy, and the S&P Futures are still 7+ points below Fair Value. Looks like a very ugly open.
All I can say is, “I give up!” Sound familiar? The shorts are well into control. Unless you do play the short side of the market and have plenty of cash, then all you can do is sit around and wait.
Maybe, just maybe, we’ll get that “blow off” we’ve all been waiting on. A 250 point drop in the Dow on heavy volume with a late day reversal into positive territory, would be the best of all worlds. Too much to hope for? Probably!
See you on the other side.
apppro’s take for 06/04/2006@05:00 pm EST:
Some week. Everyone was running scared over the Fed Minutes from Tuesday, but there was nothing there that really wasn’t expected. A real non-event. It appears that Bernanke is stuck in a real hard place. If he pauses, then Wall St. will see him as bring weak on inflation (even though there really isn’t any – no pricing power); but if he raises, he runs the risk of over-shooting and turning this “Goldilocks” economy into a real bow-wow. As is, the jobs report from Friday showed a very small increase of only around 75,000, so things are cooling much faster then expected. Housing is starting to suck, though you would never know it from the condo prices in NYC.
So what does this mean for us? Got to tell you that annuities are looking better and better. A guarantee of 5%+ just isn’t looking so bad right about now. ENT & EEQ are still paying great dividends and are priced very reasonable, especially ENT. I still see a major downturn in this market with a 12% correction to 10,500. Some are even saying less, but we know they are just shorts trying to scare the crap out of us. Yeah right! My plan is still to get even, or +5% (I was up 8.5% for the year, but May sure took care of that.) by the 15th, and then go away for the summer! Hope it works out.
In the meantime, AA did seem to get away with murder by having the union members pay for health care, so you may want to take a look at around $30.50. Wish I had sold my SIRI at $4.55 last week, but I was being too piggy. It had a nice run back from the $3.50 level, so what the hell was I thinking. Same thing goes for CPST, but I still love that puppy way too much. Never fall in love with your stocks! MOT, INTC, MSFT, & AMTD – all big caps – are just turning out to be all big craps, so don’t think that they are such a bargain at these levels. Maybe they are, but they still suck wind.
Keep an eye on GSS and BGO. I’m sure Iran will pull a fast one and these gold stocks will go thru the roof again. Oh, and don’t get sucked into KRY - it’s just a Cramer hype.
apppro’s take for 05/25/2006@08:00 pm EST:
Now that was so much better, wasn’t it! We got off to a strong start even off of weak Futures, and it just built momentum all day long. I would love for Wall St. to go on Holiday Weekend vacation very early tomorrow; and we get a very modest and tranquil up tick. Let us all pray that there is great weather in the New York area. We want those overpaid traders to have a great weekend in the Hampton’s, so they can come back Tuesday with a BUY mentality.
Send out partial kudos to the “Prof” for taking a quick profit on her CPST, getting out at the high on Wednesday. Partial, because she bought it back today. Too early! We need some contracts very soon or it’s back to under $3.00. Am I jealous or what! SIRI had a great pop and I hope it holds, so I can get in a stop limit on Tuesday at where I bought it - $4.52. Did you see SGMG – nice up movement, too. They put out their report: 0 products, 0 revenue, 0 earnings. I guess some figured it can only get better from here.
I understand that the “Amazing” one is going to climb a volcano in Guatemala, so I am losing my sage for a week. Some sage, his last quote was, “I’ve given up. I don’t even watch anymore!” Have a great trip and don’t get avian flu down there.
Well, that’s it until after the Memorial Weekend. Have fun and relax.
apppro’s take for 05/24/2006 @08:20 pm EST:
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