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(Continued from page 88)
Oh well, I told you so. I hope you didn’t get as screwed as much as I did. 10 days and almost my entire 2006 profit in the toilet. It was just such a horrible sell-off in almost every area that I was just not prepared for it. Sucks! Oil – commodities – brokerage – tech – nothing was really spared.
I think the selling is now over. Yeah sure – heard that before. Today they tried to drive it down midday, but they couldn’t. We got close to that 11,000 I warned about and then bounced right off. Looks good for the short term. Now if they just keep the bird flu crappola to a minimum, we might just make it. I have a feeling we’re back to the upper range of the latest trading range – around 11,450 – and then, well it’s going to be a real pullback to 10,700 starting around 6/15. God I hope I’m out before, and this time I mean it!
Hey check out FOXH. After hitting the depths of hell – we’re on our way back up. Took an upgrade, but what the hell. Had a chance on PAY and LMS, but I have no available cash left. I don’t believe in selling 1 looser to buy a probable other one, anyway. CPST finally got the NYC MEA approval. Maybe a return to $4.50 in a few weeks. AMTD still sucking wind.
I’m keeping the faith! Have no other choice.
apppro’s take for 05/15/2006 @08:20 am EST:
What the frig happened? Everything was looking so great! Well that’s exactly the problem. I said we should start taking profits and go cash, but did I listen? NOT! Well, the smart boys did and on Thursday they started to take those profits and run for the hills. At the same time, the shorts smelled blood and we were all caught in a “reverse squeeze”. Selling brought on more selling, which just fed on the shorts greed and brought on more shorting. No real reason for any of this except for the old and venerable excuse: “Fear & Greed”. Friday was just more of the same.
In the meantime, I got slaughtered. Nothing was exempt from the carnage. Life sucks and then you die.
But what now? This could keep going for a full 10% correction back to 10,500. God I hope not at this time. My big caps couldn’t handle it. As is MOT broke downside support at $21.65. The rest of my crap didn’t fair much better. At least I wasn’t in EXPE – 25% haircut.
For Monday what would be great is that we open with more selling with a further washout, AND then a mid to late day reversal, ending positive or even close to positive. That would be a very bullish sign. However, if we get an up morning, well I fear that will just be a “dead-cat bounce” and we’ll get more frenzied selling in the afternoon. Above all, the specifications of the following logarithm must be met:
When the angle of the dangle,
Is in proportion to the heat of the meat;
The mass of the ass is constant.
HELPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP! I’ve tanked and can’t get up!
apppro’s take for 05/10/2006 @08:20 am EST:
Well it’s Fed day. 5% is a given, but what then? Most are hoping for a “pause”, or at least language that will indicate that. I think the Fed is going to pull a fast one and give in to reality – “No Pause, Inflation on the rise!” Unfortunately this will tank the market. Either way they go, you and I have no control. OK, we could be in cash, but what happens if they do say pause – we’re screwed.
I sold my AA and GM last week – STUPID I GUESS! Could have sworn they would keep going down, which they did after my sale. Oh well. As a wise man keeps telling me, “Don’t look back and move on.” Just can’t though.
Right now I’m fully invested. Not happy about that. I bought FOXH back after the earnings at $25.90. I’ll hold for a while. I also put some into SGMG – have to take the needle out of arm for that one. I have way too much crappy big cap tech still. Never again.
See you on the other side. Good luck today.
apppro’s take for 04/21/2006@08:00 am EST:
That’s it! I started selling things today, or at least started trying. After that enormous GM run up I sold. I know I said I was in till $24, but there is only 1 thing that Cramer and I agree on: “Hogs get slaughtered!”
I did not like the sell off today in the commodity stocks, oil, and metals. All of this in tandem with “the stock that cannot be mentioned” going up 40 points in after-hours. Tomorrow I will continue the selling, or least put in some conservative “stop limit” orders.
Earnings have been good, but not good enough to sustain this run up. OK, foreign markets are strong and our economy seems to be firing on all cylinders. It’s just that there is way too much euphoria and complacency. Something has got to give and I really rather lock in some profits and wait. I am holding my ENT and EEQ, and will happily wait around while I collect dividends of 14% and 8.5% respectively.
apppro’s take for 04/20/2006 @08:00 am EST:
I see that FOXH had a really nice pop to $31.38. Oh well, but Mr. Ballantine has set the price @ $28.50. Got a bad feeling about this one—next stop $36.
Well, after a brief sell off in the AM, both major indices clawed their way back into positive territory. The Nas even more so. After the bell AAPL had some good earnings, but EBAY missed. INTC was not as bad as expected. Not much consolation to all of us that are holding this pos. At least I’m only in at $21.25. Bad enough! Anyway, the market action today was a very bullish sign. Not sure we’re breaking out to new highs, but the retracement I am still expecting has been put off for a while longer. Now watch—the market will tank just to prove me wrong.
apppro’s take for 04/19/2006 @08:00 am EST:
WOW! 200 points! Back to the upper end of the trading range in 1 day! Caught me off guard, but since I’m almost fully invested all I can say is: YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH BABY!
Let’s give out some kudos to the “amazing” one who told me to buy YHOO last week. Nice earnings! Too bad I didn’t listen. Oh well. He also told me he bought TYC yesterday and I laughed my ass off. Who’s laughing now? But if I were him I’d run for the hills with the profit.
What about Wednesday? Got to be a pullback, but then again maybe not. This market has me totally baffled, but since my stock picks keep going in the right direction, who cares.
apppro’s take for 04/18/2006@08:00 am EST:
Gold at $620 and oil at $71! GEEEZZZZZ! The geo-political reasons for these latest surges just want to make me vomit. When will people stop the insanity and stupidity? The answer to that question is not promising.
Asian markets are up and Europe isn’t tanking, so maybe things may not be too bad today. BGO had a nice pop to $4.90. Think I’ll hold now for a bit. Should have sold my GM—oink oink.
FOXH is getting to where I’m thinking of buying it back: $28.50. However, I’m still waiting for them to report to see what the stock does. There has been no news on Silverhawk tests or updates. No news is not necessarily good news. Also, Herb Greenberg is back to making his feelings known. lol Besides, if Bayer’s phase 3 trials of NAPA3 prove to be as promising as previous trials, then all these other companies have serious competitive problems.
apppro’s take for 04/17/2006 @08:00 am EST:
Since this market is an absolute gamble—let’s talk about gaming stocks. I’ve been playing PGIC. Bought it 2 months ago at $7.25 and sold it at $9.50 2 weeks ago. Really stupid, but I bought into some bs on the Yahoo chat board. Watching to buy it back, just don’t want to pay $10.60+. Look at the PE! I do love their latest game—”Rapid Bet”! Very Cool! It’s also showing a very bullish uptrend. Love to buy it back under $10, but I don’t think that’s happening. Still has nice upside to $14.
I did get a recommendation from VanK’s significant other, for SGMG.OB (Pink Sheets—YUCK!) No earnings and on a very serious downtrend. I’m not sure why he likes this one, but this guy is someone I trust to only be in winners. I’ve put it on my watch list. It’s only $1.15, but I wouldn’t suggest buying it unless you have some really big kahunas.
apppro’s take for week ending 04/14/2006 @08:00 am EST:
Market closed today. Go skating. Happy Holidays.
Tough week for most. I’m not sure about you, but this market scares the crap out of me. We’re now stuck close to the upper end of this higher trading range of 11,000 to 11,300. Personally a pullback to 11,000 is a no brainier. Actually I’m looking for a return to the prior trading range of 10,200 to 10,800 – if we’re lucky. Why? Well, the main reason I have besides from the perception that this market is way over-valued; is the realistic fact that there are a lot of hedge funds, a.k.a. shorts, that need to make a profit also. It’s their time and turn!
I see no safety in anything: drugs, consumer, and even oil. We are heading into the seasonally weak part of the market and it’s time to go cash.
Will I listen – probably not!
“Be afraid – be very afraid!”
apppro’s take for 04/13/2006 @09:00 am EST:
Going to be a slow day today. Not sure why gold is down, but it is. Watch KRY and BGO for minor pullbacks. I put a sell in on my BGO at $4.75—feel like if we get there I can live with it.
CPST is looking good. Retested $4.00 twice now and if Cramer would shut up — it could slowly go to $4.65.
Bought GM yesterday at $19.20—holding till $24.00—lol.